Strong Start to 2019

83,000 sales are forecast to be reported through TREB's MLS® System in 2019 – a moderate increase compared to 77,375 sales in 2018. This moderate increase will be underpinned by an uptick in the number of people considering a home purchase, as reported by Ipsos, which will be supported by continued population growth, low unemployment rate and lower average fixed-rate borrowing costs compared to 2018.
Slightly tighter market conditions, similar to those observed in the second half of 2018, will support a moderate pace of price growth in 2019. The average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area will increase to $820,000 – close to the peak reached in 2017 and up from an average of $787,195 in 2018. The condominium apartment market segment will continue to be the driver of price growth, whereas average detached home price growth will be below the average growth rate for the market as a whole.

Strong Start to 2018

In-depth review of the 2017 housing market shows that annual residential sales declined 18% from the record-setting numbers recorded in 2016, falling to 92,394 transactions from 2016's 113,000. After a strong start to the year in Q1 2017, the introduction of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan (FHP) triggered a dip in the markets during Q2 and Q3. These numbers would recover in Q4 as the psychological impacts of the FHP began to wane, and the introduction of new Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) stress test guidelines approached.
Drilling deeper, a year-over-year average price growth of over 30% was recorded in Q1 2017, which TREB identifies as a factor that led to the FHP. The immediate aftermath of the FHP was a noticeable decline in sales and increase in listings, followed by a stabilization in price growth during the second half of the year. 2017's overall average selling price rose by 12.7 % annually to $822,681. While still a strong number, TREB reports that the annual rate of growth owes much to transactions that predate the introduction of the FHP.
The report then considers 2018, with forecasts for the already active year. TREB expects between 85 and 95,000 sales this year, anticipating a decline from the 2017 total. Due to the still strong figures recorded in 2017, year-over-year declines are expected to be more significant during Q1 2018, though as we move into spring and summer, sales are expected to be up on a year-over-year basis.

Strong Start to 2017

TORONTO, ONTARIO, February 3, 2017 - Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,188 residential transactions through TREB's MLS® System in January 2017. This result was up by 11.8 per cent compared to 4,640 sales reported in January 2016. Annual rates of sales growth were higher for condominium apartments than for low-rise home types. January 2017 picked up where 2016 left off: sales were up on a year-over-year basis while the number of new listings was down by double-digit annual rates for most major home types. "Home ownership continues to be a great investment and remains very important to the majority of GTA households. As we move through 2017, we expect the demand for ownership housing to remain strong, including demand from first-time buyers who, according to a recent Ipsos survey, could account for more than half of transactions this year. However, many of these would-be buyers will have problems finding a home that meets their needs in a market with very little inventory," said Cerqua. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark price was up by 22.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in January. Similarly, over the same period, the average selling price was up by 22.3 per cent to $770,745, with double-digit gains in the average prices for all major home types. “The number of active listings on TREB’s MLS® System at the end of January was essentially half of what was reported as available at the same time last year. That statistic, on its own, tells us that there is a serious supply problem in the GTA – a problem that will continue to play itself out in 2017. The result will be very strong price growth for all home types again this year,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis

Strong Start to 2016

TORONTO, February 3, 2016 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,672 residential transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in January 2016. This result represented an 8.2 per cent increase compared to January 2015. “It is clear that the handoff from 2015 to 2016 was a strong one. This is not surprising given that recent polling conducted for TREB by Ipsos suggested 12 per cent of GTA households were seriously considering the purchase of a home in 2016. Buying intentions are strong for this year as households continue to see home ownership as an affordable long-term investment,” said McLean. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark Price for January 2016 was up by 10.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis. The average selling price over the same period was up by 14.1 per cent. The difference in the annual growth rates for the MLS® HPI and average price was largely due to a greater share of high-end detached homes sold in the regions surrounding the City of Toronto this year compared to last. The MLS® HPI removes the impact of shifts in the share of different property types sold from one year to the next. “Market conditions in January were tighter compared to a year earlier, with an annual increase in sales up against a decline in listings. This is why growth in the MLS® HPI benchmarks continued to be strong, especially for singles, semis and townhouses, where there has been a persistent lack of inventory,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

Strong Start to 2015

TORONTO, February 4, 2015 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced a strong start to 2015, with robust year-over-year sales and average price growth in January. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,355 home sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first month of the year. This result represented a 6.1 per cent increase over January 2014. During the same period, new listings were up by 9.5 per cent. "The January results represented good news on multiple fronts. First, strong sales growth suggests home buyers continue to see housing as a quality long-term investment, despite the recent period of economic uncertainty. Second, the fact that new listings grew at a faster pace than sales suggests that it has become easier for some people to find a home that meets their needs," said Mr. Etherington. The average selling price for January 2015 home sales was up by 4.9 per cent year-overyear to $552,575. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up by 7.5 percent compared to January 2014. "Home price growth is forecast to continue in 2015. Lower borrowing costs will largely mitigate price growth this year, which means affordability will remain in check. The strongest rates of price growth will be experienced for low-rise home types, including singles, semis and town houses. However, robust end-user demand for condo apartments will result in above-inflation price growth in the high-rise segment as well," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.